Daniel Nepstad, cientista senior do Woods Hole Research Center e pesquisador do IPAM, afirma em carta que suas afirmações em matéria do jornal britânico Financial Times, publicada no dia 27 de maior de 2008, são de cunho pessoal e não refletem posição das instituições onde atua. A seguir, a íntegra da nota divulgada por Nepstad sobre o assunto:
“Resposta ao artigo da Financial Times Medidas para diminuir o desmatamento Amazônico estão 'simplesmente erradas'.
28 de maio de 2008.
Escrevo esta nota para esclarecer as opiniões proclamadas por mim ao Jornal Financial Times e que foi publicada em 27 de maio de 2008. Tais opiniões são de cunho pessoal e não refletem na posição institucional do Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM) ou do Woods Hole Research Center, instituições as quais eu pertenço.
O ponto de vista destacado em meus comentários ao referido jornal foi de que o governo federal brasileiro errou ao planejar uma estratégia política de combate ao desmatamento calcada sobremaneira nos dados de desmatamento para o segundo semestre de 2007 obtidos pelo INPE através de seu sistema DETER. Portanto, meus comentários NÃO expressam críticas ao programa de monitoramento de desmatamento do INPE, o qual eu considero o melhor sistema de monitoramento de florestas tropicais do mundo. Seu programa de mapeamento anual do desmatamento, chamado Programa de Estimativa de Desflorestamento da Amazônia (PRODES), disponibiliza mapas das áreas de corte raso até o final de julho de cada ano e é desenvolvido com imagens de alta resolução espacial (20 a 30 metros). Já o Detecção de Desmatamento em Tempo Real (DETER) disponibiliza mapas de desmatamento a cada 15 dias, mas é desenvolvido com imagens de baixa resolução espacial (250 metros). Como o INPE deixa claro em seu site na internet, o objetivo do DETER não é estimar o tamanho das áreas desmatadas. Para as estimativas de área, o INPE se ancora nos mapas de alta resolução espacial, produzidos anualmente pelo PRODES. O objetivo do DETER é o de disponibilizar informações rápidas sobre os padrões espaciais do desmatamento na região Amazônica. Usar o DETER para estimar o tamanho de áreas desmatadas é possível, mas é sempre necessário avaliar a margem de erro com a qual se está trabalhando. Os pesquisadores do INPE sabem desses limites do DETER e sempre os consideram, mas nem sempre estes são conhecidos da mídia ou daqueles que não estão interados da metodologia.
Os mapas e as estimativas anuais de desmatamento do PRODES, e não do DETER, são a base apropriada para respostas políticas ao desmatamento por duas razões. Primeira, é importante traçar respostas políticas tendo como base o ciclo de um ano completo de atividades de desmatamento. Somente neste contexto de um ano a comunidade científica saberá se há uma tendência real ou não. Nós ainda não sabemos, por exemplo, se o período de julho de 2007 a julho de 2008 terá taxas de desmatamento mais altas do que nos anos anteriores. A segunda razão é que o nível de incerteza das estimativas da área desmatada é muito mais baixo com o PRODES. Em cada pixel do sensor MODIS utilizado pelo sistema DETER, cabem aproximadamente cem pixels de imagens de alta resolução dos sensores Landsat ou CBERS utilizados pelo PRODES.
O Ministério do Meio Ambiente foi além do propósito do sistema DETER do INPE no início de 2008, quando utilizou resultados do DETER para adereçar um conjunto de medidas punitivas para “desmatadores” ilegais na Amazônia. Essas medidas punitivas foram lançadas ao mesmo tempo em que importantes experiências para a governança estavam florescendo, incluindo a moratória da soja. Um resultado das medidas adotadas pelo governo foi a polarização do diálogo entre os causadores de desmatamento (fazendeiros) e o movimento socioambiental. Produtores responsáveis que estavam dando passos concretos para boas práticas agrícolas se sentiram criminalizados pelas medidas do governo. O desafio crucial para a Amazônia hoje é (a) tornar viável para fazendeiros responsáveis a obediência às leis ambientais e (b) aplicar a legislação para aqueles que escolheram não atender as leis, punindo-os com rigor. Uma vez que a obediência às leis é viável, aplicada, e eventualmente premiada, o desafio em controlar o desmatamento se torna alcançável. Na Amazônia de hoje, este objetivo ainda não pode ser atingido.
O maior obstáculo para a obediência às leis entre proprietários rurais na Amazônia é a exigência, desde 1996, de que 80% de cada propriedade rural situada no Bioma Amazônico ser mantido como reserva legal. Infelizmente, não houve um acompanhamento através de um sistema efetivo para ajudar os proprietários rurais a alcançarem a legalidade. Como resultado, poucos daqueles que excederam o limite de 20% de desmatamento foram capazes de atingir a obediência às novas leis. Leis bem intencionadas podem aumentar a ilegalidade se não houver um acompanhamento da necessidade de se tornar a sua obediência viável. Um passo concreto poderia ser dado no sentido de manter a exigência dos 80% de reserva legal, A peça chave seria o reconhecimento do valor do esforço feito pela sociedade brasileira, pelo governo e pelos proprietários de terras em manter viva uma legislação que estabelece a reserva legal. Poderia se pensar até em compensações por tal decisão. Seria interessante ver a expressão de um agricultor americano ao se exigir que mantenha boa parte de sua propriedade como reserva florestal.
Leis que envolvem os usos dos(as) proprietários(as) sobre suas propriedades deveriam ser modificadas somente com diálogos, negociações e análises cautelosas. A sociedade brasileira está pronta entrar neste processo e, assim fazendo, poderá desenvolver políticas muito mais efetivas para governar a Amazônia.
Daniel Nepstad
Cientista Senior, Woods Hole Research Center
Pesquisador, IPAM”
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